StructuredCrystalBallGazing

Structured Crystal Ball Gazing

A workshop to investigate the use of scenario planning in agile projects to create a strategic container for a responsive and responsible iterative development process.

Abstract

Using XP and other agile processes, software development teams can transition to become responsive. XP introduces iterative, tactical planning. This enables teams to embrace change, but bears the risk of losing long term focus. Following the Agile Manifesto in extremo in preferring responding to change over following a plan, leads to steering a project only by reacting to the events as they occur and betting one's company or career on a single prediction.

This workshop investigates how, in addition to iterative, tactical planning, we can use scenario planning for strategic planning and keeping an eye on the long view.

In terms of Quality Software Management books by Gerald Weinberg, scenario planning helps to move from the Steering to the Anticipating cultural pattern. In terms of the Cynefin model of sensemaking (http://www.cynefin.net), introducing scenario planning is a choreography from the complex domain to the knowable domain.

Scenario planning is a technique from strategic business planning, developed by Shell in the seventies. Scenario planning helps to develop flexible, nimble plans. Scenario planning is not predicting the future or making a big design up front - scenarios help us to quickly sketch multiple possible futures. See e.g. The Art of the Long View - Planning the Future in an Uncertain World by Peter Schwartz and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning .

Possible workshop topics:

• How to do scenario planning with customers
• Can scenarios help to find balance between planning individual stories vs sets of features
• Track scenarios during a project
• Use scenarios to formulate and prioritize stories
• Find a balance between shorter term, tactical planning and long term scenario planning
• Program management through scenario planning
• Involve stakeholders through scenarios
• Use scenarios to grow a coherent product or program
• Set up boundaries and attractors through scenario planning

Audience and benefits of attending

Managers, project leaders, software developers, scientists, coaches, customers, anybody involved in or interested in managing agile projects and wishing to take the long view. Participants are not required to have prior familiarity with scenario planning - the organizers will provide an introduction.

Benefits: this workshop helps in becoming more agile, through effective ordering of development stories or requirements; participants will learn more about balancing tactical and strategic planning in software development.

Outline of the theme and goals of the workshop

The goal of this workshop is to investigate how scenario planning can be used in agile software development and what its benefits and limitations are.